Originally published Feb. 24, 2026 on Newsweek.com
As usual, it’s another late winter in Boston, and the Red Sox are insisting they have all the pieces to contend.
“There’s no ceiling on the 2026 Boston Red Sox,” team CEO Sam Kennedy said earlier this month, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne. “This group, if things come together, and we have good health, I think the sky’s the limit for what we might be able to achieve. But it’s February.”
Welcome to Boston, where hope springs eternal — until things actually go well, and then they’ll tell you nobody ever believed.
That’s what happened last year, when the Red Sox went into the season with an 86.5 projected win total. En route to modestly bettering that mark with 89 wins, the Red Sox actually underperformed their expected record of 92-70, according to run differential. That didn’t prevent manager Alex Cora from pretending they were the second coming of the 1980 US men’s hockey team.
“Let’s be honest, nobody thought we were going to make it to October,” Cora was quoted as saying on the eve of the postseason, in a tweet by MassLive reporter Christopher Smith. “Whoever says that, ‘Yeah, we were a playoff team,’ that’s (expletive), to be honest with you.”
Plenty of others pointed out the nonsense of that statement, but that attitude has become standard practice for one of the premier franchises in the sport, yet one that acts like a small town mom-and-pop outfit. To hear them tell it, the Red Sox are perennial, scrappy overachievers, just trying to get by in the hardcore business of Major League Baseball.
In reality, since 2020, the Red Sox have outperformed their Pythagorean win-loss prediction only twice: In 2021, the last time they reached the postseason before last year, and in 2022, when they stunk slightly less than the math suggested they should have stunk.
Make no mistake, expectations for this year’s Red Sox are high — as they should be. By all accounts, with the additions of Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and even Johan Oviedo to incumbents Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello, the rotation is “loaded.” Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin are being lauded as lowkey impactful everyday acquisitions. And, of course, icon-in-waiting Roman Anthony is expected to be healthy again.
All of those factors culminate in the Red Sox entering the season with an over-under of 87.5 wins — only one win behind the defending AL champion Toronto Blue Jays. Las Vegas is just as high on these Red Sox are their fans should be.
In other words, when the Red Sox are packing for the playoffs on Sept. 27, don’t let them tell you nobody believed in them. From Lansdowne Street to the Strip, everyone expects this team to be in the mix. If they’re not, then that will be the surprise — and not a pleasant one.
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